Android Fragmentation Not Solved with Ice Cream Sandwich

Google announced last year that Ice Cream Sandwich, the latest version of the Android operating system would solve the fragmentation issues in the Android market place. However Android fragmentation worries hit the mainstream news this week when Michael DeGusta announced the results of a report which summarised that, despite Ice Cream Sandwich,  it was hard to find an Android phone running the current version of the operating system. Furthermore, with most contract phone owners on two year contracts, their phone were likely to be on the latest version of the operating system for just six months out of the two year contract.

The Android fragmentation problem lies with the fundamental differences between hardware, network operator and software vendors. Google is capable of releasing major software versions (Froyo, Gingerbread, Honeycomb, Ice Cream Sandwich) every six to seven months. The hardware manufacturers are not able to to design, produce, test, ship and market devices to the same timescale. The network operators (who provision the devices for the networks) move even more slowly.  Network Operators are just not geared up to the speed at which Google is moving. Their position in the supply chain is somewhat of a hurdle and a pain point for Google. How will their position look in say five years time?

Reportedly plans are afoot at Google to adopt new guidelines which stipulate when Android devices are updated following a new platform release. Guidelines will also dictate how long carriers and manufacturers will update the various models with OS upgrades. The initial support period for upgrades will be eighteen months. This means consumers who buy a brand new phone with the latests operating system, as soon as it is released, will still have an out of date operating system for a quarter of their contract period. A more likely scenario is the OS will be out of date for at least half of the contract period.

As the profit lies within hardware sales, there is little incentive for the hardware manufacturers to support (free) operating system upgrades. They want you to throw away your phone when it is out of date and buy another. Paradoxically Apple want you to be happy with your phone, whilst Android manufacturers want you to be unhappy (after a short period of time) and buy the next version.

Should contract periods for the latest Android phones therefore be eighteen months? That would increase the costs for consumers as the network operators take their share over a two year period. It remains to be seen how this will unfold.

Thanks to Michael DeGusta for the graphic and analysis.